The idea is to prevent President Biden from winning one of the state’s five electoral votes; both he in 2020 and Barack Obama in 2008 won the state’s dynamic 2nd district. (Maine is the only other state that distributes electoral votes this way.)
But supporters of the Nebraska case aren’t giving up yet. Wednesday’s tactic was to attach the change to an unrelated bill, but the effort could take another form if supporters can overcome significant procedural hurdles. And Biden’s team reportedly committed to the fight too.
All in a single electoral vote: 1 out of 435. Why?
Because even if it’s unlikely that Nebraska’s 2nd District could be decisive in a presidential race, it’s not unpredictable. There are some plausible scenarios where this could matter.
The most frequently invoked scenario is this: Trump flips Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from blue in 2020 to red in 2024, while Biden holds on to the crucial trio of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats have already isolated those three states as Biden firewalls, hoping his appeal to Midwestern voters will remain.
Arizona and Georgia were the closest states in 2020, and Trump would simply have to flip them and Nevada, which polls suggest it is quite favorable for him right now.
Under current rules, and if nothing else changes from 2020, even in Nebraska’s 2nd District, Biden would win 270 electoral votes to 268. The map below is courtesy of 270 to winwhere you can create your own scenarios:
If Nebraska changes its rules, that would mean a 269-269 tie, which will be resolved by the House of Representatives. (Each state’s delegation would receive one vote, and Republicans seem likely to have more delegations.)
Other scenarios are even less likely.
One involves Trump flipping just two states starting in 2020: Michigan and Pennsylvania. That would create a 269-269 tie before a possible switch in Nebraska, and a 270-268 Trump victory if the switch is made.
But Michigan (which went for Biden by 2.8 points) and Pennsylvania (Biden by 1.2) were not as close as other key states last time. And it’s hard to imagine a situation where Biden loses them but keeps Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.
Other scenarios involve Trump defeating Michigan, but Biden also somehow defeating North Carolina (which he lost by 1.3 points).
Trump could flip Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Biden could flip the Tar Heel state. That would be a 269-269 tie before any change in Nebraska.
Trump could also flip Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Biden could flip North Carolina. Again: a 269-269 tie, in which Nebraska’s 2nd District could tip the race toward Trump.
Trump could also flip Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshirecreating a 270-268 Biden map before a switch in Nebraska, and a 269-269 tie if Nebraska makes the switch.
But New Hampshire favored Biden by 7.4 points, indicating how unlikely these scenarios are becoming.
A 270-268 or 269-269 Biden map can also be reached by moving the 2nd district from Maine (which Trump won by 7.4 points) or Florida (Trump by 3.4 points) to Biden, in combination with other changes . But red would have to turn to blue and blue to red in very unlikely ways, especially considering we’re talking about the same candidates on the ballot as we had in 2020.
And then we delve into other possibilities. One is that faithless voters withhold their votes from a candidate. Another is Maine responding to a change in Nebraska by also the winner takes it all (effectively helping Biden by offsetting the change). Another would be if a third-party candidate somehow won a state, which would change the majority math for each candidate.
All of this is unlikely, especially in aspects that would be important. But we have seen close votes in the electoral colleges. George W. Bush won 271 electoral votes just 24 years ago. Rutherford B. Hayes won by a single electoral vote in 1876. John Adams got one more electoral vote than he needed in 1796.
Those three races represent 5 percent of all presidential elections in American history.
