The revolt by some Liberal MPs against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership may not have led to his ouster, but one political analyst says tensions within the party will last for some time and may further damage the Liberals’ electoral prospects.
Trudeau made clear Thursday that he would remain as leader after some Liberal MPs signed an internal document calling on the prime minister to resign, and those members expressed their frustrations to Trudeau in an hour-long caucus meeting on Wednesday.
In an interview broadcast on Sunday The west blockLori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University, told host Mercedes Stephenson that Trudeau’s promise to remain means nothing has changed since before the internal Liberal revolt began, with no ability for dissident members of the caucuses will force Trudeau’s resignation.
“Now I think it gets awkward for a while,” Turnbull said. “And we’ll see how long that can last until the next election.”
The Liberals have not adopted the powers made available to parties under the Reform Act, which includes the option for at least 20 per cent of a party group to trigger a leadership review if a group votes in favor of adopt the law, which they have the opportunity to approve. do after the federal elections.
Receive the latest national news
For news affecting Canada and around the world, sign up to receive breaking news alerts delivered directly to you as it happens.
The Conservative group did so and became the first party to invoke federal legislation to force a vote on whether to keep Erin O’Toole as leader in 2022, leading to her ouster and the subsequent election of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
Turnbull said the Liberals would be in a better position today if they had those same mechanisms in place.
“From Justin Trudeau’s perspective, (he can say), ‘You know what? If you want to kick me out, get the numbers and if you have them, I’ll leave. And if not, shut up,’” he said. “And it would be better for the caucus because they would actually have a mechanism to do it. There would be clarity.
“Right now, it’s the worst of all worlds.”
The longer the dissent within the Liberals lasts, Tunrbull said, the harder it will be for Trudeau and his party to explain to Canadians why they deserve to be elected and win a fourth term.
“It’s a lose-lose situation,” he said.
The Liberals have spent more than a year with a double-digit deficit in the polls against the Conservatives, who have benefited from growing public anger toward Trudeau and his slow addressing of affordability concerns.
A poll conducted by Ipsos for Global News in September found that Trudeau’s popularity was at a “new low” in his nine years as prime minister.
Turnbull said that while leadership challenges in the past have been less urgent, the current Liberal revolt is based on MPs’ fears about their own political survival.
“I think the worst-case scenarios for the Liberals are pretty bad,” he said.
“Some of these people are saying, ‘If Justin Trudeau doesn’t step aside, I’m going to lose my seat.’ I think a lot of people are going to lose theirs. Is there any way I can take one for the team and let someone else in to see if we can salvage something?’”
So far, no caucus member has publicly emerged as a possible successor.
Former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark said last week she wanted to be “part of the conversation” about the future of the federal Liberals should Trudeau decide to step aside.
© 2024 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
