Below are four different scenarios in which Biden could be replaced at the top of the ticket, including before and after Election Day.
Have you been a candidate?
nominated yet?
Biden is the presumptive nominee, but he could still be replaced at the convention whether he decides to step aside or not.
Have you been a candidate
nominated yet?
Biden is the likely nominee, but he could still be replaced at the convention whether he decides to step aside or not.
The easiest way for Democrats to replace Biden is to do so at their August convention, especially if he agrees to step aside.
Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said, “It’s a question of partisan rules and partisan laws, first and foremost. It is not in the Constitution, nor in state laws, nor in federal laws. It is mainly in party laws.”
In this scenario, delegates would arrive at the convention without committing to Biden and then endorse another nominee in what is known as an “open convention” where multiple candidates can compete for the nomination on the fly, according to Kamarck, who also served as a Democratic delegate several times.
It has been decades since such a convention was held, but it is not unprecedented. At the 1960 Democratic National Convention, for example, several candidates competed for delegates ahead of then-Sen. John F. Kennedy got the go-ahead.
If Biden refuses to step down, it is still possible, though unlikely, that a rival could emerge to try to convince delegates to back him, Kamarck said.
The party president can convene the national committee
session to elect a new candidate.
The party president may call the national committee into session to elect a new candidate.
Once the convention is over, the campaign enters a new phase, where replacing Biden becomes more difficult, but not impossible. According to Kamarck, the party has rules that empower the party chairman to call the national committee into session to choose a new candidate.
In fact, Democrats did this after the 1972 convention, when they replaced Senator Tom Eagleton, George McGovern’s running mate, because of concerns about his health.
However, if this were to happen again in 2024, it could face serious logistical and legal hurdles, as voting deadlines may have already passed and early voting may have already begun in some states.
The electoral college
Have you already voted for a candidate?
The party can ask electors to vote for the vice president-elect or an alternate candidate, but they must follow state rules.
The electoral college?
Have you already voted for a candidate?
The party can ask electors to vote for the vice president-elect or an alternate candidate, but they must follow state rules.
Should Biden win the election but become incapacitated before the Electoral College votes on Dec. 17, Democrats still have a path to replace him — but that’s where things get tricky. There is no federal-level process for replacing a president-elect during this term.
“It’s a bit of a murky situation,” Kamarck said. “My guess is that what both sets of voters would do is probably vote for the vice presidential candidate, but they’re not obligated to do so.”
According to Kamarck, state rules on how this would work vary, with some states requiring electors to vote for the person they were elected to support. If this were to happen, it would likely be chaotic. “There could be some strange outcomes,” Karmack said.
Has that candidate taken
the oath of office?
The vice president is
first in line
succession according to
To the Constitution of the United States
and the presidential
Succession Act of 1947.
Under Section 3 of the Twentieth Amendment, the vice president-elect
becomes president.
Has that candidate taken
the oath of office?
The vice president is
first in line
succession according to
To the Constitution of the United States
and the presidential
Succession Law of 1947.
According to Article 3 of the Civil Code of the Republic of China,
Amendment, the vice president-elect
becomes president.
In the event that Biden becomes incapacitated after the electoral college has voted, things are actually simpler than in the previous scenario.
In this situation, the Constitution provides in Section 3 of the Twentieth Amendment that the vice president-elect becomes president. Similarly, if Biden were to become incapacitated after the inauguration, the vice president would become president, as both the Constitution and the Constitution provide. Presidential Succession Act of 1947.
Colby Itkowitz and Amy Gardner contributed to this report. Illustration by Ben Kirchner.
