Canadian police and migrant aid groups are preparing for an influx of asylum seekers fleeing President-elect Donald Trump’s United States, at the same time Canada faces record numbers of asylum seekers and is trying to bring back fewer. immigrants.
The former and now future president of the United States came to power this week in part on a promise to implement the largest deportation in US history.
Canadian police have been preparing for months, RCMP Sergeant Charles Poirier said Thursday.
“We knew a few months ago that we had to start preparing a contingency plan because if he comes to power, which will happen now in a few months, it could boost illegal and irregular migration to (the province of) Quebec and Canada. ”he told Reuters.
“In the worst case scenario, people would cross the entire territory in large numbers. … Let’s say we have 100 people a day crossing the border, then it will be difficult because our officers will basically have to cover enormous distances to arrest everyone.”
When Trump first came to power in 2017, thousands of asylum seekers crossed into Canada between formal border crossings to file asylum claims, overwhelmingly on Roxham Road near the Quebec-New York border.
Roxham Road no longer an option: Canada and the United States expanded a bilateral agreement so that asylum seekers attempting to cross along the 4,000-mile border, rather than just by formal crossings, will now be turned away unless they meet a limited exemption.
This means people crossing from the United States to file claims must cross clandestinely undetected and hide for two weeks before seeking asylum, a potentially dangerous prospect, immigrant advocates say.
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But they add that people are already doing it.
“When you don’t create legitimate avenues, or when you just create avenues where people have to do the impossible to get to safety, unfortunately, people are going to try to do the impossible,” said Abdulla Daoud, director of The Refugee Center. in Montreal, which provides services.
And those numbers are expected to increase.
Police are on “high alert,” Poirier said, prepared to deploy additional resources to patrol the border. Depending on what happens, that could mean hundreds more agents. It could also mean more cruises, bus rentals, trailer construction and land rentals.
“All eyes are on the border right now. … We were on high alert, I can tell you, a few days before the election, and we will probably remain on high alert for the next few weeks.”
Canada is already grappling with record numbers of refugee claimants: In July, nearly 20,000 people filed refugee claims, according to data from the Immigration and Refugee Board, the highest monthly total on record and driven by global displacement, advocates told Reuters. and experts.
The number has since dropped to around 16,400 in September, but remains historically high. According to the board, there are more than 250,000 claims pending.
Canada’s government has reduced the number of permanent and temporary immigrants, but has less control over how many people apply for asylum.
Toronto’s FCJ Refugee Center already serves dozens of new asylum seekers each week, founder Loly Rico told Reuters.
Trump’s election “is going to impact Canada,” he said. “We will start to see more people crossing the border, showing up in cities and seeking support.”
He is worried about what will happen in the winter. In 2022, a family of four froze to death while attempting to cross the border near Emerson, Manitoba.
“It’s going to be a challenge for any refugee in the United States to feel like they belong, and that’s why they’re going to start looking at what other countries can start providing protection for them.”
Canada’s attempts to shore up its borders have been a boon for smugglers: People used to pay for help getting to the United States and get to Canada on their own, Rico said; They now pay more to come to Canada by land or air.
Daoud added that, with a likely influx, now is the time for Canada to invest in its asylum infrastructure to better support and process people making asylum claims there.
“Unfortunately, until government policy changes in its approach to this particular issue, there will be more of the same. “We will not be prepared and everything will become politicized again.”
Immigration Minister Marc Miller has said his government has a plan for an influx of asylum seekers, but gave no details.
Canada’s immigration department “will continue to prepare for and anticipate all possible scenarios; “Any approach taken will be, first and foremost, in the best interest of Canada and all those who live here,” Miller’s office wrote in a statement.
