With two days until Nova Scotians elect their next government, polls suggest Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Houston’s decision to call an early vote will pay off and the real battle will be between the Liberals and the NDP for second place. .
The Progressive Conservatives are seeking a second consecutive term on Tuesday after sweeping the Liberals from power in August 2021. Conservative leader Tim Houston called a snap election on Oct. 27, citing the need for a new term and ignoring his government’s election law. , which for the first time The Time in Nova Scotia set a fixed date for the election: July 15, 2025.
In a recent interview, Alex Marland, a political scientist at Acadia University, said the final result is shaping up to be what Houston expected when it called the election. Marland said several factors were at play in Houston’s political calculation to advance early.
“I was ahead in the polls and there was a lack of public attention or enthusiasm for an election that was being held in the context of all the attention paid to the American elections and, of course, there were municipal elections (in Nova Scotia),” Marlandia said . “The fact that they were early elections took the other parties by surprise and made it more difficult for them to organize.”
The result, he said, has been an absence of “interest, anger or motivation” on the part of the electorate. “I think that ultimately benefits progressive conservatives,” Marland said.
A Narrative Research poll released Wednesday put the Conservatives comfortably ahead with 44 percent support. The NDP came in second with 28 per cent and the Liberals in third with 24 per cent. The survey of 800 Nova Scotia adults conducted between Nov. 4 and Nov. 17 is considered accurate within 3.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.
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Tom Urbaniak of Cape Breton University said the campaign has been “perhaps the calmest I’ve seen in Nova Scotia.”
“It just feels less intense on the field,” Urbaniak said. “There are fewer signs and less literature on doors, and there seems to be less conversation in coffee shops.”
He said the lack of a longer lead to the set date has also contributed to a general lack of attention, and that the 30-day campaign is the shortest allowed by law.
“So that was a factor as well.”
Issues such as the cost of living, the lack of affordable housing and the province’s weakened health-care system were prominent in the campaign, but no issue dominated how the Progressive Conservatives managed to make health care the top issue in 2021. .
Marland said what the polls suggest is that the Progressive Conservatives should “sweep” many rural areas outside of Halifax.
“Within the Halifax area they have a much closer competition with the NDP and that’s a real problem for the Liberals because it suggests the Liberals are not competitive anywhere,” he said.
“So the real issue here… is how much of the liberal vote will stick around?”
Urbaniak said NDP Leader Claudia Chender has become a strong campaigner with strong debate performances that have helped boost her profile in her first election as leader.
With early poll numbers pointing to a possible low voter turnout on Tuesday, Urbaniak believes the battle between the Liberals and the NDP will come down to who can get the most voters in the constituencies where they are competitive.
“(The result) will favor whoever has a strong mobilization on the ground,” Urbaniak said.
Liberal leader Zach Churchill agrees.
“We have to get people out and vote,” Churchill said, while noting that Nova Scotia Elections has not sent out voter information cards because of the postal strike.
“A lot of people don’t know where they’re going to vote, so there’s a lot more pressure on the candidates and their volunteers and the core campaign team to let people know,” he said Friday.
Churchill said he is proud of the campaign his party has run.
“You only control what you can control. “We put a lot of effort into putting together the right plan for this province… and we are running a campaign that is based on ideas,” he said.
Chender believes his party’s message has come as a result of hard work on the ground.
“We have toured the province in the last 24 hours and we are going to continue visiting as many candidates in the communities as we can until election day,” he said Friday.
He also believes getting out the vote will be critical at a time of year when people aren’t necessarily focused on politics.
“For us as New Democrats, it’s one door at a time, giving people information about where to go and vote,” he said.
Meanwhile, Houston expressed confidence that his campaign has reached enough Nova Scotians for his party to win a second term in government.
“There is work to be done, but overall I think Nova Scotians recognize the effort,” he said Friday.
“I’m sure I’m optimistic, but we’ll spend the next few days working hard and touring the province.”
At the time of dissolution, the Progressive Conservatives held 34 seats in the 55-seat legislature and the Liberals held 14 seats, while the NDP had six and there was one independent.
© 2024 The Canadian Press
