Israel and Iran are likely to seek to avoid further escalation of their long-running dispute into a regional war after an apparent Israeli attack last week, a Middle East expert says, but Iran may still be building a list of targets. for the future.
Israel and the United States have not commented on who was responsible for a series of explosions over the Iranian city of Isfahan on Friday, which Iran said were air defenses that shot down several attack drones launched from Israel. It came nearly a week after Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones toward Israel, almost all of which were repelled, in retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed two Iranian generals at an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria.
Iran has downplayed Friday’s incident and said it does not plan to retaliate, a response that Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, says Israel likely planned.
“I think we’re really seeing Iran try to put this aside and not have a big war over this,” he told Mercedes Stephenson in an interview broadcast Sunday night. The west block.
“Iran is probably not prepared for a massive escalation of war, and Israel certainly doesn’t want it at a time when they are also struggling to finalize things in Gaza and decide what to do with Rafah.”
The fact that the drones apparently targeted Isfahan, which hosts not only a major air base but also sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program, further shows that Israel’s response to Iran’s attack was “symmetrical,” Panikoff added.
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“It’s really saying to the Iranians: Look, we can attack you. “They are not allowed to attack us with impunity,” he said.
“(Israel is saying): ‘We are giving them a way out here. “We have no interest in climbing if you don’t want to climb.” And now it’s really up to the Iranians to make a decision about whether or not they feel the need to attack Israel again or let it go.”
Although Iran may not want to counterattack Israel any time soon, Panikoff said he has “no doubt” that Tehran is drawing up a list of targets that could be used in the future. The Iranian attack showed that the regime is currently focused on military targets in Israel, but he said that could change.
“That (list of objectives) probably includes both military objectives for a future conflict that are somewhat contained, (and) civilian objectives (if anything) is much broader,” he said.
Hezbollah may also be given a separate list of potential targets that could include Israeli gas deposits and even the headquarters of its nuclear program, he said.
Reuters reported on Friday that Israel put the brakes on previously approved plans for a response to the Iran attack after facing cabinet divisions and strong warnings from partners, including the United States, not to escalate the conflict.
The United States has repeatedly said it will support Israel’s defense if Iran continues to attack. Panikoff said the same cannot be said for Iran, whose closest allies – Russia and China – are more “transactional” without the close ties that Israel and the West enjoy.
“The relationship between Iran and Russia has become much, much closer over the course of the Russian war in Ukraine… but there are questions about whether that is just tactical or whether it is actually strategic in nature,” he said.
“Will Russia come and significantly support Iran in the event of conflict? Will China provide support to Iran? Probably not.”
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