Canada appears to be heading toward a spring election now that the NDP has vowed to topple the government early next year, regardless of whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remains in office or not.
Political observers are excited about possible scenarios that could unfold next year after last week’s drama that rocked the Trudeau government, and a spring national campaign is solidifying the fastest.
The exact timing is up in the air, but the best thing is for the government to fall at the end of March and then general election day would be in April or May, said Yaroslav Baran, co-founder of the Pendulum Group and former chief of staff to the leader of the Conservative House, Jay Hill.
“The highest probability would be that the government would fall sometime between the end of February and the end of March,” he said, making April or May the “most likely scenario” for election day.
If the government falls to a vote of no confidence, the prime minister would be forced to go to Governor General Mary Simon to inform and advise her on the timing of the elections. The window for a campaign is a minimum of 36 days and a maximum of 50 days, according to Elections Canada.
Events in Ottawa last week appear to have moved the political calendar forward by about five months, since the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland dealt a blow to Trudeau’s control over the party and has renewed internal pressure for him to resign. as a leader.
Trudeau is now said to be mulling over his future. The prime minister’s office did not respond Monday when asked about his holiday plans.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has promised to help defeat the ruling Liberals in a vote of confidence when the House returns. The Conservatives, firmly ahead in the polls, have been demanding elections all autumn, while the Bloc has also recently called for elections early in the new year.
Singh could still change his mind and many scenarios remain possible, such as an opposition party negotiating a costly line item in the budget and then holding elections in the fall as scheduled, but that looks increasingly less sustainable.
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“There is no longer much point in reaching some kind of agreement and being a partner of the government that you are about to vilify a couple of months later as public enemy number one. 1,” said Barán.
“Evidently, the Liberals no longer have the support of any of the opposition parties. Therefore, the likelihood of a spring election is high, regardless of whether the government prorogues or not,” said Brittney Kerr, founding partner of Framepoint Public Affairs and former 2019 Liberal campaign co-chair.
“It is lost on no one at the center (in the Prime Minister’s Office) how complex the political equation for winning is, given the overwhelming public sentiment in favor of the Conservatives, coupled with the prime minister’s long tenure.”
The government can still prorogue, which would hit Parliament’s stop button and leave it in a deep winter slumber for several months. That would provide breathing room for a leadership race should Trudeau decide to resign.
But Baran said such a move would only take him so far, given that all opposition parties now appear ready to go to the polls and parliament has to return soon to approve finances and continue paying public servants, and face music in those key votes.
“If the Prime Minister prorogues, it will allow him not to have to appear before Parliament on January 27. So you may buy some time to plan, regroup, etc., but it would be really difficult for that extension period to last beyond the end of March.”
A leadership race would be a rushed affair compared to Liberal Party contests in the past. When Trudeau was elected leader in 2013, the race lasted about six months, although in 1993 the Progressive Conservatives elected Kim Campbell in a race that lasted about three months.
Former Privy Council Clerk Michael Wernick said proroguing just as Donald Trump is sworn in as president on Jan. 20 would shut down parliament at a bad time, taking options off the table to respond to potential sudden trade moves that could hurt Canada.
“The question is not whether the prime minister can prorogue. It’s whether I should do it. My feeling is that it would be a very bad choice to abandon our shields before January 20th. “I think we may need Parliament to be present and functional.”
The Liberals have been weaving a narrative that an experienced government is necessary to deal with an unpredictable Trump, and opposition parties are also positioning that the public should elect a leader stronger than Trudeau to deal with an aggressive White House. Trump.
Wernick said Canada should try to fix its elections sooner rather than later this year.
“The best thing for the country would be to finish the elections as soon as possible and be very clear about who Canadians have chosen to lead us,” he said. “The longer we prolong this theater of spectacle and this house of cards – who has legitimacy, who has confidence, who is the leader, who will be the successor – prolonging this weakens the country.”
Wernick suggested that political parties could, given how much is at stake in Trump’s presidency, reach a sort of partisan ceasefire agreement to pass as much legislation as they can in a few weeks, such as Bill C- 65 that would amend Canada’s elections. Take action and then make your vote of confidence that will trigger the elections.
“Republicans and Democrats can negotiate in Washington. Surely our parties can do it.”
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