Canada has once again found itself on the outside looking in after some of its closest allies – the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia – announced the next phase of their new AUKUS security pact this week.
AUKUS, formed by the three countries in 2021, is part of efforts to confront China’s growing power in the Indo-Pacific region by focusing on military modernization through new technologies. The trio announced Monday that it will begin consultations this year on collaboration with “potential partners” around the world as part of its second phase, specifically mentioning Japan as an ally it is considering working with.
There was no mention of Canada, even though the federal government said it is considering joining the pact that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described in 2021 as “a nuclear submarine deal, for which Canada is not currently or in the future in the future.” market”.
Speaking to reporters on Monday, as his government announced its long-awaited defense policy update, Trudeau said Canada was already talking to AUKUS members about working with the alliance and potentially even joining it as a member.
“I think it’s really important that allies, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, work together more strongly and closely, and those Canadian conversations with our partners will continue,” he said.
Canada seeks to join AUKUS security pact: report
But AUKUS members have already poured cold water on the idea of expanding the alliance beyond the central trio, and experts say that even if that were possible, Canada is unlikely to be invited.
“The United States and Canada are already so closely aligned that AUKUS could become CANAUKUS quite easily, but it is not. That’s a choice,” said Richard Shimooka, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute who studies defense policy.
What is AUKUS and what does it aim to do?
The first stage, or “pillar”, of the AUKUS pact focused on delivering nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, aligning its fleet with the US and UK.
The countries have signed agreements that will see Virginia-class submarines built in the UK with a British design and an American conventional weapons system on board, at a cost of $3 billion, with the first submarines to be delivered in the 2030s. A shared submarine technology platform, called SSN-AUKUS, will also be developed and put into use over the next decade.
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The second and broader pillar of AUKUS focuses on military technology sharing and cooperation in areas including quantum computing, artificial intelligence and cyber technology, with the ultimate goal of collaboratively innovating its militaries.
That will include engaging with international partners and allies on potential collaborations for individual projects and “on areas where they can contribute to and benefit from this historic work,” the alliance said Monday. He said collaboration opportunities will be identified based on factors including “technological innovation, financing, industrial strengths, ability to adequately protect sensitive data and information, and impact on promoting peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.” “.
Canada does not participate in the new AUKUS submarine pact
Japan was selected as a potential partner in advanced capabilities projects “due to its strengths and close defense partnership with the three countries,” a Pentagon spokesperson said in a statement.
Shimooka said Japan brings technological advances “that would be extremely beneficial” to AUKUS, making them a natural choice for a potential collaborator.
But Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese clarified on Monday that there were no plans to add a fourth member to the pact and that any collaboration would be done on a “project by project” basis.
“What is not proposed is to expand the number of members of AUKUS,” he said at a press conference.
US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are expected to discuss a possible collaboration with AUKUS during Kishida’s state visit to Washington this week, the White House said on Tuesday.
China has criticized the pact and said it could trigger a regional arms race. A Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Monday that expanding AUKUS would destabilize the region and that Japan should act cautiously on defense issues given its history.
Why isn’t Canada participating?
While Canada may end up working closely with AUKUS in the future, Shimooka said it is simply not in a position to contribute as an equal partner even if it were asked to join.
“The goal of AUKUS is to ensure the modernization of military systems to stay ahead of their adversaries,” he said in an interview. “Canada hasn’t adapted that well… and couldn’t really take advantage of it.”
As evidence, Shimooka pointed to the same defense policy update that Trudeau and his government announced on Monday.
While the policy commits another $8.1 billion over the next five years, that brings Canada’s defense spending to 1.76 per cent of GDP by 2030, still below NATO’s target threshold of 2 per cent for its members. And promised equipment increases, including new helicopters and submarines, do not address long-standing problems with timely procurement or match the technological advances AUKUS seeks.
Canada pledges $8.1 billion in new defense spending
The updated defense policy calls for the purchase of conventionally powered submarines to replace the country’s four Victoria-class submarines, which will reach the end of their service life in the mid-2030s. But the cost of purchasing those new submarines is not yet It’s calculated, Trudeau said, meaning total spending will almost certainly increase.
The prime minister left the door open Monday to a nuclear-powered option, telling reporters that the government still needs to determine what type of submarines are “most appropriate” to protect Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic. That could present an opportunity for collaboration with AUKUS if Canada decides to go nuclear.
The defense policy update focuses not only on Arctic security, but also on the growing problem of cyberattacks and technological warfare, and the threat posed by China, Russia and other hostile actors in those spaces. The Canadian Armed Forces have also been working to develop their cyber capabilities, which were a major component of the last defense policy update in 2017 and which the military will work on alongside the Communications Security Establishment, the signals intelligence agency. foreigners from the country, which is governed by the National Defense Law.
But Shimooka says such announcements are not forward-looking and only serve to bring Canada to the level where AUKUS members already find themselves.
He said not being invited to the alliance is a “psychic wound” that likely still haunts Ottawa.
“We want to be part of these alliances, we want a seat at that table,” he said. “But the simple fact of the matter is that allies do not see Canada as useful to these more modern-minded alliances.”
– with files from Reuters and The Canadian Press
