Shortfalls in Canada’s defense spending are having a real impact on the Canadian Armed Forces, a former military leader says, and revelations about “significant” errors in the government’s plan to increase that spending mean those problems may continue longer. than promised.
Retired Gen. Tom Lawson, who served as chief of the Defense Staff from 2012 to 2015, says pressure may have to come not only from Canada’s international allies but also from Canadians themselves to achieve real change in the way in which the government invests in its army and defense.
Failure to do so may affect overall combat readiness in the future, he adds, which could affect the relationship between the United States and Canada in particular.
“When you look at the military that I was in charge of 10 years ago and the military that exists today, the things that are very similar is that… we don’t maintain our bases and we don’t maintain our equipment,” Lawson said Mercedes Stephenson in an interview reported broadcast on Sunday The west block.
“When all those things (are addressed) … people in uniform are happy, run effectively and efficiently on bases and provide good, capable weapons and options for Canadian decision makers in the future.”
With Canada increasingly being called upon to provide continental and global defense support, Lawson said allowing combat readiness to deteriorate presents a “real risk,” both from a political and security perspective.
A report by Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux said last week that if Ottawa wants to meet NATO’s military spending target of 2 percent of GDP by 2032 as promised, it will have to nearly double defense spending to $81.9 billion. dollars.
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The report also found that the current forecast saying Canada will spend 1.76 per cent of GDP on defense by 2030 was based on “erroneous” economic growth projections that assume the country would be in a four-year recession. According to the watchdog’s own analysis, projected defense spending will reach just 1.58 percent of GDP by the end of the decade.
“(The Department of National Defense) used GDP figures that are much lower than you would expect, and that are markedly different than those used by the Department of Finance, so it was very unusual and surprising to us,” he said. Giroux to Stephenson.
He added that the Defense Department stood by its numbers when Giroux’s office pointed out the discrepancy, which also caught them by surprise.
“It is obviously a mistake to forecast a recession in Canada for four years in a row.”
Defense Minister Bill Blair told reporters that the spending projections were based on NATO figures that depend on the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. But Giroux said his office couldn’t find those numbers that matched those provided by the government.
Canada currently spends 1.37 per cent of GDP on defence, representing $41 billion by 2024-25.
Where should the money go?
Lawson said he wasn’t surprised the government’s forecasts seemed so far off, but he said the real issue is that making the necessary investments could help address the military’s maintenance problems.
Last year, the administration asked the Department of National Defense to cut about $1 billion from its budget, which Lawson called “horrible.”
A CBC report this year He said almost half of Canada’s military equipment is unavailable and unusable, and that only 58 per cent of the armed forces could respond to a call to deploy.
“If you could get us to 1.6, 1.7 (percent) right now, now that you’ve taken care of the bases, the ships that are going down during deployment overseas, 50 percent reliability and capability of our aircraft,” Lawson said. . “And all that money stays in Canada.
“That leaves another (0.3 per cent) to invest in areas where Canada needs investment.”
The government has pledged to invest $8 billion over five years for new equipment and other defense needs, adding to previous spending increases in areas such as modernizing NORAD.
Among the investments Ottawa has promised is a new fleet of submarines that will be part of a broader focus on Arctic security.
While Lawson called submarines a “fantastic investment,” he said the money should also go toward new naval destroyers and creating a “permanent capability” in the Arctic, including bases in the north, as the update recognizes. defense policy.
Giroux said the government would have to increase spending by an additional $6.5 billion a year to reach 1.76 percent in 2030.
As for reaching $82 billion and two percent two years later, Giroux said it will be “very difficult to achieve” while meeting the government’s fiscal anchors, including avoiding a growing deficit.
“That would probably mean reducing spending in other areas or raising taxes,” he said.
Canadians wondering how the government or any other party will try to increase defense spending to meet NATO’s goal while keeping the country’s finances healthy may have to wait until the next election, Lawson said.
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