Canada has a lot to worry about as the US presidential election draws to a close, but a former diplomat between the two countries says he’s particularly worried about the “chaos” after the vote, including the “pretty high” potential of violence.
David MacNaughton, who served as Canada’s ambassador to the United States from 2016 to 2019, says he is confident Canada can handle a future Donald Trump or Kamala Harris administration despite the challenges each would pose.
But with polls showing an extremely close race, MacNaughton says he is hopeful the outcome will be clear enough to avoid a contested result like the 2000 U.S. election, which went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court.
“You can imagine the upheaval that would ensue,” he told Mercedes Stephenson in an interview broadcast Sunday night. The west block.
“So I hope that one way or another, it’s clear. “I think we can deal with either outcome, but chaos wouldn’t be good for anyone.”
MacNaughton said that regardless of who wins, he believes the likelihood of political violence following the outcome (which could take days to determine) is “pretty high.”
The Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by a mob of Trump supporters protesting his election loss “really shocked him” and stood in stark contrast to the run-up to Trump’s 2016 inauguration. said.
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“The atmosphere is so divided and so intense on both sides that I really worry about the possibility of violence,” he said. “It wouldn’t necessarily be in Washington. “It could be in other places in the country.”
A poll conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released Monday shows that Americans are also worried about what might happen after Election Day, particularly if there is no immediately clear winner.
About four in 10 registered voters said they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about violent attempts to overturn the results after the November election. A similar proportion were concerned about legal efforts to do so. And about a third of voters said they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about attempts by local or state election officials to prevent results from being finalized.
Any post-election unrest in the United States would create “real problems” for Canada, MacNaughton said, including on cross-border trade and national security.
However, if Trump wins and carries out the promised mass deportation of at least 10 million immigrants from across the United States, Canada could face a wave of fearful immigrants.
“We have a very, very long, undefended border, and that’s concerning,” MacNaughton said.
The ambassador said the key difference between a Trump or Harris presidency will be how quickly Canada will have to be ready to negotiate things like the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Both candidates have said they want to reopen the trade pact when it is reviewed in 2026.
While Canada may have more time to engage with a Harris administration “on a more traditional basis” before that review, MacNaughton said, the tone will immediately be more confrontational and “transactional” under Trump.
“I think with Trump we should be prepared to talk about how we are going to be good partners and help preserve peace, security and prosperity,” he said.
Commitments to address shared interests such as defense and fentanyl smuggling could even help Canada avoid the blanket tariffs on all foreign imports to the United States that Trump has promised to impose.
“I realize that everyone is worried about whether he’s going to impose tariffs, whether he’s going to do this or that,” he said. “But we have a lot of strengths that we can come to the table with. We just have to be prepared to do it and not always want to just talk about trade.”
MacNaughton said Canada’s decision to follow the United States in imposing high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and components has “pleased” both Democrats and Republicans in Washington, and demonstrated that Canada is willing to work collaboratively with the United States on shared priorities.
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